Publications

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Harnessing the Integrated Statistical Machine Learning for Traffic Crash Injury-Severity Modeling

Pengfei Cui, Chenzhu Wang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Xiaobao Yang*, Xingchen Zhang, Lishan Sun

Published in Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2026

Proposes LGPBoost, a unified STAT-ML framework that couples tree-boosting with GP mixed effects to jointly model nonlinear covariate effects and spatio-temporal (road-segment and annual) dependencies, validated via simulation and Florida motorcycle crashes (2014–2023).

DOI
Crash Severity Florida motorcycle crash records (2014–2023) Latent Gaussian Process with Tree-Boosting Model (LGPBoost)

Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Intercity Public Transport within Urban Agglomerations: Exploring Multi-Layered Heterogeneity and Distance-Based Variations

Yali Yuan, Xiaobao Yang*, Sixuan Li, Pengfei Cui, Manli Yuan

Published in Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2026

This study investigates the impact of autonomous vehicles on intercity public transport mode choice within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration using a hybrid random parameter logit model, revealing how multi-layered heterogeneity and travel distance influence traveler preferences.

DOI
Travel Behavior Survey Data Statistics

Spatiotemporal Disparities in Macro-Microscopic Properties of Motorcycle Injury Level

Chenzhu Wang, Pengfei Cui*, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Said M. Easa

Published in Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 2025

This study utilizes a partially temporally constrained random-parameters logit model to investigate spatiotemporal disparities in motorcycle injury severity in Florida (2020-2022), integrating macro-level socio-demographic factors with micro-level crash data.

DOI
Crash Severity Florida Crash Data Statistics

Multiscale Geographical Random Forest: A Novel Spatial ML Approach for Traffic Safety Modeling Integrating Street-View Semantic Visual Features

Pengfei Cui , Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Lei Han*, Xiaobao Yang

Published in Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2025

This study proposes a Multiscale Geographical Random Forest (MGRF) integrating street-view semantic visual features for traffic safety modeling by capturing multiscale spatial heterogeneity.

DOI
Crash Frequency Spatial Modeling Florida Crash Data Streetview ML

Bivariate Joint Analysis of Intercity Travelers’ Adaptive Behaviors During Adverse Weather Events

Yali Yuan, Xiaobao Yang, Dongdong Song, Xianfei Yue, Pengfei Cui

Published in Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2025

This study jointly analyzes intercity travelers’ adjustments to departure dates and travel modes during adverse weather using a correlated random parameters bivariate probit model, revealing significant correlations and heterogeneity in adaptive behaviors.

DOI
Travel Behavior Survey Data Statistics

Examining the Impact of Spatial Inequality in Socio-Demographic and Commute Patterns on Traffic Crash Rates: Insights from Interpretable Machine Learning and Spatial Statistical Models

Pengfei Cui, Mohamed Abdel-Aty*, Chenzhu Wang, Xiaobao Yang, Dongdong Song

Published in Transport Policy, 2025

This study utilizes interpretable machine learning (XGBoost with SHAP) to unravel the non-linear effects of socio-demographic and commute patterns on spatial inequalities in overall and fatal traffic crash rates, demonstrating superior performance over traditional spatial statistical models.

DOI
Crash Frequency Spatial Modeling Florida Crash Data ML

Quantifying Spatial Inequities in Traffic Injury Rates Through the Integration of Urban Road Network Measures and Social Vulnerability

Pengfei Cui, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Xiaobao Yang*, Chenzhu Wang, Yali Yuan

Published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2025

This study utilizes spatial lag models and geographically weighted regression to quantify spatial inequities in traffic injury rates in New York City (2021-2023), integrating urban road network topology and social vulnerability indices.

DOI
Crash Frequency Spatial Modeling NYC Crash Data Spatial Statistics

Effects of Helmet Usage on Moped Riders’ Injury Severity in Moped–Vehicle Crashes: Insights from Partially Temporal Constrained Random Parameters Bivariate Probit Models

Chenzhu Wang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Pengfei Cui*, Lei Han

Published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2024

Using joint random-parameters bivariate probit models and a partially temporal constrained framework, this paper quantifies how helmet use and crash/context factors jointly shape moped riders’ injury severity in Florida (2019–2021), and reveals COVID-19-related temporal instability in key effects.

DOI
Crash Severity China Crash Data Statistics

Advancing Urban Traffic Accident Forecasting through Sparse Spatio-Temporal Dynamic Learning

Pengfei Cui, Xiaobao Yang, Mohamed Abdel-Aty, Jinliang Zhang, Xuedong Yan

Published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2024

Proposes an SST-DHL framework that combines dynamic hypergraph learning with self-supervised representation learning to improve sparse, skewed urban traffic accident forecasting and enhance interpretability.

DOI
Crash Frequency NYC Crash Data DL

Modeling Non-Parametric Effects of Two-Vehicle Speed on Crash Risk at Intersections: Leveraging Two-Dimensional Additive Logistic Regression Beyond Univariable Approach

Pengfei Cui, Xiaobao Yang*, Lu Ma, Chaoxu Mu

Published in Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, 2023

Using CRSS intersection crash data (2016–2018), this study models serious-injury risk as a two-dimensional, non-parametric function of two-vehicle speeds. The framework moves beyond conventional univariable impact-speed definitions, revealing crash-type-specific and non-monotonic speed–risk patterns that inform intersection safety interventions.

DOI
Crash Severity US CRSS Data Statistics

Bivariate Joint Analysis of Injury Severity of Drivers in Truck–Car Crashes Accommodating Multilayer Unobserved Heterogeneity

Dongdong Song, Xiaobao Yang*, Yitao Yang, Pengfei Cui, Guangyu Zhu

Published in Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2023

This study proposes an RPBPHM framework to jointly model truck- and car-driver injury severities in the same crash using UK STATS19 (2017–2019), quantifying cross-equation correlation while capturing multilayer unobserved heterogeneity and temporal stability/instability of contributing factors.

DOI
Crash Severity California Crash Data Statistics